Professor Ken Diffeyes spoke about the problem of “peak oil” at several locations in Alaska recently. He presented his information in an entertaining manner, but under the charming exterior is a message with dire implications for the world. A geophysicist and professor emeritus at Princeton University, Diffeyes is one of the leading experts on world energy supplies.

     Professor Diffeyes’ message comes in two parts. The first part is that we have already extracted and used half of all of the petroleum that will ever be recoverable from the entire planet, and the rate of future extraction will now inevitably decline no matter what we do to boost production. In other words, we have passed the peak level of oil production and are starting on the downhill slide. He has a lot of facts and figures to back up his message. I am not going to describe them here. You can buy or borrow his book if you want to know more about his methodology.

     The second part of his message is that there are no alternative forms of energy that can replace the declining supply of available petroleum over the next decade or two. In the long run, he believes that there are solutions to these problems, but he is very pessimistic about the next ten to twenty years. Again, his book goes into this issue in great detail, and I do not intend to rehash his evidence in this column.

     I previously wrote about one local example of hydrocarbon fuel production starting to decline in my July 22, 2005 column, “As Kenai goes, so goes the world.” That column also made the connection between the local example (natural gas) and the global problem of peak oil. I don’t know whether Diffeyes is correct about the precise timing of the global peak, but it is clearly an issue that will be affecting us over the next couple of decades.

     There are no easy answers to the problem of peak oil, but the consequences of doing nothing are extremely severe. The “Green Revolution” which has boosted food production so much in the last sixty years relies extensively on petroleum used to make fuel and fertilizer. Worldwide, hundreds of millions of people are likely to starve if farmers can’t get adequate supplies of fertilizer and fuel to keep their productivity up. Virtually every other industry on the planet is also dependent on affordable supplies of petroleum.

     In the long run, we must learn to live without relying so heavily on hydrocarbon fuels. Not only are we using them up, but the carbon dioxide that the burning fuels put into the air is causing global warming. This is an especially important issue in the arctic, which is warming twice as fast as the rate of warming in the temperate zones of the world.

     The responses of the oil companies are not uniform. Some, like Exxon, are hiring lobbyists and PR firms to ensure there are no government programs to promote effective conservation, and to protect their right to charge as much as they like when the severe shortages hit. Others, like BP, are now calling themselves “energy companies” instead of “oil companies” and are positioning themselves to sell people many different sources of energy.

     What can you do? Don’t wait for the Bush administration to promote conservation. Live simply and without extravagance. Make your house a model of energy efficiency. Reduce your dependence on driving, and use a more fuel-efficient vehicle. Learn how to grow your own food without pesticides and artificial fertilizers. These are not easy things to do, and they take time to accomplish. If you start now, you will be much better prepared for the world we will face over the next several decades.

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